Our reliance on the weather is obvious in our daily lives. According to a study, one-third of people in the UK discuss the weather every hour, highlighting its importance. Among different weather conditions, rain holds significant influence on our decision-making. Questions like “Should I bring an umbrella?” or “How should we reroute vehicles during heavy rain?” arise. To tackle this challenge, our team, in collaboration with the Met Office and published in Nature, has made advancements in Precipitation Nowcasting, which specifically predicts rain and other precipitation phenomena within the next 1-2 hours. This collaboration between environmental science and AI aims to support decision-makers and address the challenges of weather prediction in an ever-changing environment.
The Significance of Short-term Weather Predictions
Throughout history, weather predictions have played a crucial role in our communities and countries. Medieval meteorologists used the stars to make predictions, and over time, information on seasons and rain patterns was recorded. Fast forward to today, numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, which solve physical equations, provide global predictions for several days in advance. However, NWP systems struggle with generating high-resolution predictions for the next two hours. This is where nowcasting steps in to bridge the gap.
Nowcasting’s Importance and Generative Models
Nowcasting is essential for various sectors like water management, agriculture, aviation, emergency planning, and outdoor events. With the availability of high-resolution radar data, which measures ground-level precipitation, every 5 minutes at a 1 km resolution, machine learning can contribute to the field of nowcasting. We specifically focus on the prediction of rain, including the amount, timing, and location of rainfall. Through generative modeling, we can make accurate predictions of future radar based on past radar data. This approach allows us to capture large-scale events and generate ensemble predictions, providing insights into rainfall uncertainty.
Improved Medium to Heavy Rain Predictions
Our study focused on improving predictions for medium to heavy rain events, which have the most significant impact on people and the economy. Compared to existing methods, we demonstrated statistically significant improvements in these scenarios. Additionally, we received positive feedback from expert meteorologists at the Met Office, who rated our approach as their preferred choice in 89% of cases. This demonstrates the practicality and usefulness of our method in real-world decision-making.
Looking Ahead
While our approach shows promise, there is still room for improvement. Long-term predictions and accuracy on rare and intense events can be enhanced. We will continue to refine and specialize these methods for specific real-world applications. We believe this is an exciting field of research that will contribute to the integration of machine learning and environmental science. By better supporting decision-making in our changing climate, we aim to make a positive impact on society.
Read Our Paper and Access Data
To delve deeper into our research, you can read our paper on Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar in the September 2021 issue of Nature. The paper contains extensive discussions on the model, data, and verification approach. Additionally, you can explore the training data and find a pre-trained model for the UK on GitHub. We hope that this research serves as a foundation for future work and facilitates the collaboration between machine learning and environmental science.